Title: The Probability of Murder
Author: J.D. Barker & Patrick Logan
Genre: Thriller, Mystery, Psychological Thriller
Format: eARC
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐✨ (4.5★)
Release Date: June 2, 2026
Synopsis
When math professor Ivy Reeves receives a cryptic note with her name at a murder scene, she becomes involved in a deadly investigation centered around mathematical puzzles, probabilities, and a killer who seems determined to turn murder into a game.
As Detective Vaughn Ryan races to stop the killings, Ivy’s expertise becomes essential in decoding the clues hidden within each crime scene.
But the deeper they dig, the more personal the investigation becomes, especially when the killer appears to know disturbing details about Ivy’s past and the family tragedy she’s spent years trying to survive.
And with every equation pointing toward another victim, time quickly starts running out.
My Thoughts
I absolutely ate this book up from beginning to end.
The entire concept involving math, probabilities, puzzles and murder was basically designed to grab my attention immediately. As a math girlie, this worked ridiculously well for me, and I loved how those elements were woven directly into the investigation instead of just being there for aesthetic purposes.
It made the mystery feel fresh, clever and genuinely engaging the entire time.
I also really liked Ivy as a main character. She felt intelligent without becoming unrealistic, and I enjoyed watching her slowly piece things together while dealing with her own complicated past.
And Vaughn?
Not gonna lie… I was kind of rooting for something to happen there ... (I guess, the romantic in me couldn't help it LOL)
The pacing was honestly one of the strongest parts of the book too. It never felt too slow or overly chaotic, and the story constantly gave just enough information to keep me saying:
“Okay… one more chapter.”
The twists were also very well done. I definitely suspected there was something bigger happening beneath the surface, especially once the hints surrounding Ivy’s father started appearing, but I still didn’t fully predict where everything was heading.
And now…
We need to talk about that ending 😭
*cough cough* Excuse me sir… WHAT WAS THAT???
I genuinely stared at my screen for a solid moment trying to process what had just happened. I even double-checked whether this was secretly part of a series because there was absolutely no way my brain was prepared for that ending.
At the same time, I kind of loved how completely unhinged it made me feel...
It was one of those endings that immediately forces you to sit there in silence questioning everything.
Final Thoughts
Overall, The Probability of Murder was such an addictive and cleverly constructed thriller.
The mix of mathematical puzzles, psychological tension, strong pacing and genuinely surprising twists made this incredibly easy to binge, and the ending alone is probably going to live rent-free in my head for a while.
Definitely one of my favorite thriller reads lately.
ARC Disclaimer
Thank you NetGalley, Hampton Creek Press & Simon & Schuster Group for the ARC. All opinions are my own.
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